Security
Tim Kirby
February 22, 2022
© Photo: REUTERS/Handout

The Ukrainian military has also now stated that they are not planning an invasion of the breakaway Donbass region. Which in our bizarre 21st century doublespeak means “yes we are going to invade” but more on that later.

It would seem that the defining theme of the Ukrainian Crisis in 2022 up until the last few days should be “lots of action via inaction”. The Mainstream Media has really been making it seem like by February 16th Russia would either liberate or invade the Ukraine depending on how your political views interpret the situation. Even Russian media figures on nationwide television, which are generally willing to bend over backwards to make peace and concessions, seemed to be willing to sign off on finally just ending things the hard way. This stunning “about face” was a great cause for concern that only someone living in Russia would be able to understand. The narrative shifted from a perpetual begging for peace and cooperation from the good ole Global Hegemon to “fix bayonets” overnight. This is cause for concern and the fact that the Ukrainians seemed to have launched a proxy war means that the Ukrainian Crisis is getting very hot. We should take a look at the events that have happened thus far in 2022 to understand how this dangerous situation is developing.

Russia is getting frustrated.

Regarding the change of heart within the Russian punditry, it must be stated that the bloodthirsty image of Russian foreign policy is a myth of projection from the West. Russia tends to be reactive and since it has always been a Land Empire, it has had to live with those it brings into the fold, i.e. it cannot simply slaughter its way into further expansion. However, despite this, a certain member of the Duma known for having a conspiratorial slant provided a few options to solving the Ukrainian Crisis on his YouTube channel including a preemptive nuclear strike on Nevada (to hit some of America’s arsenal, while killing no actual Americans) to somehow scare the U.S. into backing off. This type of “reasoning” is exactly what destroyed the United States’ reputation and unprecedented wealth during the Bush II era of global murder sprees. Furthermore, a limited strike to scare the Americans off at Pearl Harbor sure didn’t work out very well for the Japanese who are subjugated to this day.

Any missile attack on America in any capacity would trigger a full atomic retaliatory strike ending the existence of humanity, i.e. it is an idea that would create the exact opposite of the desired effect. This example is very extreme (it is the only time I have ever heard anything close to this discussed in respectable public in Russia) and the nuclear option is thankfully well outside the Overton Window of Russian public opinion, but the fact that it came from a popular politician without any consequences is a sign that the nation’s legendary patience is running out. Russians are simply exhausted from having their language and culture repressed across their former territory and watching their brothers and sisters being genocided in the Donbass.

The Big Day came and nothing happened.

And so February 16th came and went, Russia didn’t go in, but the United States and many NATO allies pulled out diplomats, military instructors, and other human assets out of the Ukraine entirely. NATO’s staff itself has even fled. This makes logical sense if one really expected a war, but the dubious “just trust us” type of supposedly insider info that was presented to the world via the Mainstream Media was not very convincing. Even Zelensky himself asked the West to present him with the evidence of the upcoming invasion. The leader of the side “to be invaded” is not even publicly 100% sure it would happen. So this begs the question, why pull everyone out, when in reality there was no real sign that anything was going to go down? Is this a “fake it till you make it” type of reasoning, where they need it to look like an invasion so they may as well act as if it is an invasion?

For those who believe in the whole “evil globalists want to start WWIII in the Ukraine” conspiracy, you should know that pulling out American (and EU) assets would be counterproductive to that end. Thankfully, as it stands now there really isn’t much of a human USS Maine or Twin Towers that the Russians could be accused of targeting. Most commercial flights over Ukraine have been canned as well. And with good reason, as no one wants a repeat of the Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 disaster. All of this is good news for those who do not want to die in the fires of nuclear Armageddon. The False Flag catalyst has been locked away in the closet at least for now and we can all breathe a sigh of relief.

When Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin visited Kiev he came out strong in his wording then basically implied that the U.S. wouldn’t do anything directly for Kiev. U.S. President Joe Biden has flip flopped a bit but ultimately seems to be happy throwing military surplus at the problem to hopefully make it go away. Zelensky, possibly in a fit of stress induced madness has made it clear that Kiev never needed America anyways and is ready to deal with an invasion by itself with no need for foreign troops on its territory. Good luck with that.

The Ukrainian military has also now stated that they are not planning an invasion of the breakaway Donbass region. Which in our bizarre 21st century doublespeak means “yes we are going to invade” but more on that later.

About 45 days of pure tension and inaction lead up to February 16th.

Although the media push was strong, the actual action or rather inaction taken by Washington\Kiev was palpable up to February 16th. Like a car with a busted muffler idling on a cold morning, it sounded like something is moving or happening and yet nothing budged an even an inch.

But this inaction regarding the Ukrainian Crisis in 2022 is not the exclusive realm of the Anglo-Saxons. The Russians sent their men back home rather than invading, but all along Moscow has claimed that they were just moving troops for scheduled exercises (with the Belarussians) that were never a secret to anyone. Furthermore, the Russian side has a strong argument that it can move troops over its own territory as it sees fit and should not be seen as invasion prep. Again the question of one’s political leanings will determine if you think the Russians were telling the truth on this issue.

To the great joy of the Russian masses the Duma passed a resolution to recognize the DNR and LNR breakaway republics of the Donbass as independent. In reaction to this excitement and the opportunity to perhaps take the Donbass back without firing a single shot, Putin reaffirmed his commitment to the Minsk Agreements, international law and all sorts of other things that don’t excite voters, i.e. the President of Russia said “no” to the move, which looks like a fresh steaming hot plate’s worth of inaction.

I have said many times that the Western myth that Putin’s popularity is somehow fake is complete trash. He is extremely popular and under his leadership he took Russia from laughing stock to challenger to U.S. hegemony. He has done a lot, but there are two things the Russian public will never forgive him for #1) Blowing the opportunity to take back most of the Ukraine during the chaos of 2014 and #2) the insanely unpopular state pension reforms. Putin acknowledging that the vote at the Duma was a reflection of the will of the people, then still saying “no” was essentially doubling if not tripling down on unforgivable move #1.

Perhaps Putin fears that any attempt to bring the Donbass home in a loud way would doom Russia to have to fight the war it just avoided. After all, they have given Russian citizenship to everyone there anyways, they use the ruble and have essentially de facto become a part of Russia, so the waiting game may look like the brightest path to some behind the Kremlin’s walls. Also the fickle Russian elite may grow too tired of sanctions and bow down to Globalist pressure turning their back on the Tsar. The real threat to Russia is the elite betraying Putin to maintain their lifestyles.

And so the first 45 or so days of 2022 looked like an intense game of snooker with both players endlessly taking safety shots as to not let one red ball get far enough away from the pack to allow the other side to take the initiative. But sadly it looks like out of frustration and fear Kiev has stepped in to take the cue and carelessly slam the red balls about the table to get the show on the road. The inaction phase is sadly at an end.

I hate being right when I predict that thousands will die.

Judging by the results of the pseudo negotiations at the beginning of January I wrote that it seemed to me that the only compromise position acceptable to all who actually matter in the Ukrainian Crisis would be a proxy war. There are many people who fall into the trap of only believing in things that they like, I however do not and I just want to make it clear that I am not advocating for war, nor do I think proxy wars are a “cool” instrument of geopolitics, I just think that is what is going to happen based on the evidence.

So now the Ukrainians are attacking like never before. Officials in the Donbass have asked civilians to leave for Russia and a shell from the Ukrainian side has hit Russian territory. So far this has NOT been used as an excuse for the Russians to go in, but it certainly is dangerous. The Russians have also picked a rather poignant moment to do some hypersonic missile tests to show that they mean business and that Mutually Assured Destruction is not a thing of the past. All of this is happening and we haven’t even made it to the end of the first quarter of 2022.

So ultimately we can see that the Russians didn’t take the Mainstream Media’s bait so now the proxy war will begin as Kiev’s forces are going to try to take back the Donbass. Since they were armed by the Americans it is likely the Russians will in turn arm the locals with some high tech goodies of their own. And the fighting will be done seemingly between the locals with heavy support from the bigger powers. People are going to die in great numbers and probably the majority of them will be hapless Ukrainian conscripts who were blown to bits by Russian-made missiles they didn’t see coming. This will not be a heroic war of man, gun and willpower but a question of whose missiles are more accurate, but at least we are not going to all die in a nuclear war, so that’s nice.

Ukrainian Crisis 1st Quarter of 2022: From Inaction to the Verge of Proxy War

The Ukrainian military has also now stated that they are not planning an invasion of the breakaway Donbass region. Which in our bizarre 21st century doublespeak means “yes we are going to invade” but more on that later.

It would seem that the defining theme of the Ukrainian Crisis in 2022 up until the last few days should be “lots of action via inaction”. The Mainstream Media has really been making it seem like by February 16th Russia would either liberate or invade the Ukraine depending on how your political views interpret the situation. Even Russian media figures on nationwide television, which are generally willing to bend over backwards to make peace and concessions, seemed to be willing to sign off on finally just ending things the hard way. This stunning “about face” was a great cause for concern that only someone living in Russia would be able to understand. The narrative shifted from a perpetual begging for peace and cooperation from the good ole Global Hegemon to “fix bayonets” overnight. This is cause for concern and the fact that the Ukrainians seemed to have launched a proxy war means that the Ukrainian Crisis is getting very hot. We should take a look at the events that have happened thus far in 2022 to understand how this dangerous situation is developing.

Russia is getting frustrated.

Regarding the change of heart within the Russian punditry, it must be stated that the bloodthirsty image of Russian foreign policy is a myth of projection from the West. Russia tends to be reactive and since it has always been a Land Empire, it has had to live with those it brings into the fold, i.e. it cannot simply slaughter its way into further expansion. However, despite this, a certain member of the Duma known for having a conspiratorial slant provided a few options to solving the Ukrainian Crisis on his YouTube channel including a preemptive nuclear strike on Nevada (to hit some of America’s arsenal, while killing no actual Americans) to somehow scare the U.S. into backing off. This type of “reasoning” is exactly what destroyed the United States’ reputation and unprecedented wealth during the Bush II era of global murder sprees. Furthermore, a limited strike to scare the Americans off at Pearl Harbor sure didn’t work out very well for the Japanese who are subjugated to this day.

Any missile attack on America in any capacity would trigger a full atomic retaliatory strike ending the existence of humanity, i.e. it is an idea that would create the exact opposite of the desired effect. This example is very extreme (it is the only time I have ever heard anything close to this discussed in respectable public in Russia) and the nuclear option is thankfully well outside the Overton Window of Russian public opinion, but the fact that it came from a popular politician without any consequences is a sign that the nation’s legendary patience is running out. Russians are simply exhausted from having their language and culture repressed across their former territory and watching their brothers and sisters being genocided in the Donbass.

The Big Day came and nothing happened.

And so February 16th came and went, Russia didn’t go in, but the United States and many NATO allies pulled out diplomats, military instructors, and other human assets out of the Ukraine entirely. NATO’s staff itself has even fled. This makes logical sense if one really expected a war, but the dubious “just trust us” type of supposedly insider info that was presented to the world via the Mainstream Media was not very convincing. Even Zelensky himself asked the West to present him with the evidence of the upcoming invasion. The leader of the side “to be invaded” is not even publicly 100% sure it would happen. So this begs the question, why pull everyone out, when in reality there was no real sign that anything was going to go down? Is this a “fake it till you make it” type of reasoning, where they need it to look like an invasion so they may as well act as if it is an invasion?

For those who believe in the whole “evil globalists want to start WWIII in the Ukraine” conspiracy, you should know that pulling out American (and EU) assets would be counterproductive to that end. Thankfully, as it stands now there really isn’t much of a human USS Maine or Twin Towers that the Russians could be accused of targeting. Most commercial flights over Ukraine have been canned as well. And with good reason, as no one wants a repeat of the Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 disaster. All of this is good news for those who do not want to die in the fires of nuclear Armageddon. The False Flag catalyst has been locked away in the closet at least for now and we can all breathe a sigh of relief.

When Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin visited Kiev he came out strong in his wording then basically implied that the U.S. wouldn’t do anything directly for Kiev. U.S. President Joe Biden has flip flopped a bit but ultimately seems to be happy throwing military surplus at the problem to hopefully make it go away. Zelensky, possibly in a fit of stress induced madness has made it clear that Kiev never needed America anyways and is ready to deal with an invasion by itself with no need for foreign troops on its territory. Good luck with that.

The Ukrainian military has also now stated that they are not planning an invasion of the breakaway Donbass region. Which in our bizarre 21st century doublespeak means “yes we are going to invade” but more on that later.

About 45 days of pure tension and inaction lead up to February 16th.

Although the media push was strong, the actual action or rather inaction taken by Washington\Kiev was palpable up to February 16th. Like a car with a busted muffler idling on a cold morning, it sounded like something is moving or happening and yet nothing budged an even an inch.

But this inaction regarding the Ukrainian Crisis in 2022 is not the exclusive realm of the Anglo-Saxons. The Russians sent their men back home rather than invading, but all along Moscow has claimed that they were just moving troops for scheduled exercises (with the Belarussians) that were never a secret to anyone. Furthermore, the Russian side has a strong argument that it can move troops over its own territory as it sees fit and should not be seen as invasion prep. Again the question of one’s political leanings will determine if you think the Russians were telling the truth on this issue.

To the great joy of the Russian masses the Duma passed a resolution to recognize the DNR and LNR breakaway republics of the Donbass as independent. In reaction to this excitement and the opportunity to perhaps take the Donbass back without firing a single shot, Putin reaffirmed his commitment to the Minsk Agreements, international law and all sorts of other things that don’t excite voters, i.e. the President of Russia said “no” to the move, which looks like a fresh steaming hot plate’s worth of inaction.

I have said many times that the Western myth that Putin’s popularity is somehow fake is complete trash. He is extremely popular and under his leadership he took Russia from laughing stock to challenger to U.S. hegemony. He has done a lot, but there are two things the Russian public will never forgive him for #1) Blowing the opportunity to take back most of the Ukraine during the chaos of 2014 and #2) the insanely unpopular state pension reforms. Putin acknowledging that the vote at the Duma was a reflection of the will of the people, then still saying “no” was essentially doubling if not tripling down on unforgivable move #1.

Perhaps Putin fears that any attempt to bring the Donbass home in a loud way would doom Russia to have to fight the war it just avoided. After all, they have given Russian citizenship to everyone there anyways, they use the ruble and have essentially de facto become a part of Russia, so the waiting game may look like the brightest path to some behind the Kremlin’s walls. Also the fickle Russian elite may grow too tired of sanctions and bow down to Globalist pressure turning their back on the Tsar. The real threat to Russia is the elite betraying Putin to maintain their lifestyles.

And so the first 45 or so days of 2022 looked like an intense game of snooker with both players endlessly taking safety shots as to not let one red ball get far enough away from the pack to allow the other side to take the initiative. But sadly it looks like out of frustration and fear Kiev has stepped in to take the cue and carelessly slam the red balls about the table to get the show on the road. The inaction phase is sadly at an end.

I hate being right when I predict that thousands will die.

Judging by the results of the pseudo negotiations at the beginning of January I wrote that it seemed to me that the only compromise position acceptable to all who actually matter in the Ukrainian Crisis would be a proxy war. There are many people who fall into the trap of only believing in things that they like, I however do not and I just want to make it clear that I am not advocating for war, nor do I think proxy wars are a “cool” instrument of geopolitics, I just think that is what is going to happen based on the evidence.

So now the Ukrainians are attacking like never before. Officials in the Donbass have asked civilians to leave for Russia and a shell from the Ukrainian side has hit Russian territory. So far this has NOT been used as an excuse for the Russians to go in, but it certainly is dangerous. The Russians have also picked a rather poignant moment to do some hypersonic missile tests to show that they mean business and that Mutually Assured Destruction is not a thing of the past. All of this is happening and we haven’t even made it to the end of the first quarter of 2022.

So ultimately we can see that the Russians didn’t take the Mainstream Media’s bait so now the proxy war will begin as Kiev’s forces are going to try to take back the Donbass. Since they were armed by the Americans it is likely the Russians will in turn arm the locals with some high tech goodies of their own. And the fighting will be done seemingly between the locals with heavy support from the bigger powers. People are going to die in great numbers and probably the majority of them will be hapless Ukrainian conscripts who were blown to bits by Russian-made missiles they didn’t see coming. This will not be a heroic war of man, gun and willpower but a question of whose missiles are more accurate, but at least we are not going to all die in a nuclear war, so that’s nice.

The Ukrainian military has also now stated that they are not planning an invasion of the breakaway Donbass region. Which in our bizarre 21st century doublespeak means “yes we are going to invade” but more on that later.

It would seem that the defining theme of the Ukrainian Crisis in 2022 up until the last few days should be “lots of action via inaction”. The Mainstream Media has really been making it seem like by February 16th Russia would either liberate or invade the Ukraine depending on how your political views interpret the situation. Even Russian media figures on nationwide television, which are generally willing to bend over backwards to make peace and concessions, seemed to be willing to sign off on finally just ending things the hard way. This stunning “about face” was a great cause for concern that only someone living in Russia would be able to understand. The narrative shifted from a perpetual begging for peace and cooperation from the good ole Global Hegemon to “fix bayonets” overnight. This is cause for concern and the fact that the Ukrainians seemed to have launched a proxy war means that the Ukrainian Crisis is getting very hot. We should take a look at the events that have happened thus far in 2022 to understand how this dangerous situation is developing.

Russia is getting frustrated.

Regarding the change of heart within the Russian punditry, it must be stated that the bloodthirsty image of Russian foreign policy is a myth of projection from the West. Russia tends to be reactive and since it has always been a Land Empire, it has had to live with those it brings into the fold, i.e. it cannot simply slaughter its way into further expansion. However, despite this, a certain member of the Duma known for having a conspiratorial slant provided a few options to solving the Ukrainian Crisis on his YouTube channel including a preemptive nuclear strike on Nevada (to hit some of America’s arsenal, while killing no actual Americans) to somehow scare the U.S. into backing off. This type of “reasoning” is exactly what destroyed the United States’ reputation and unprecedented wealth during the Bush II era of global murder sprees. Furthermore, a limited strike to scare the Americans off at Pearl Harbor sure didn’t work out very well for the Japanese who are subjugated to this day.

Any missile attack on America in any capacity would trigger a full atomic retaliatory strike ending the existence of humanity, i.e. it is an idea that would create the exact opposite of the desired effect. This example is very extreme (it is the only time I have ever heard anything close to this discussed in respectable public in Russia) and the nuclear option is thankfully well outside the Overton Window of Russian public opinion, but the fact that it came from a popular politician without any consequences is a sign that the nation’s legendary patience is running out. Russians are simply exhausted from having their language and culture repressed across their former territory and watching their brothers and sisters being genocided in the Donbass.

The Big Day came and nothing happened.

And so February 16th came and went, Russia didn’t go in, but the United States and many NATO allies pulled out diplomats, military instructors, and other human assets out of the Ukraine entirely. NATO’s staff itself has even fled. This makes logical sense if one really expected a war, but the dubious “just trust us” type of supposedly insider info that was presented to the world via the Mainstream Media was not very convincing. Even Zelensky himself asked the West to present him with the evidence of the upcoming invasion. The leader of the side “to be invaded” is not even publicly 100% sure it would happen. So this begs the question, why pull everyone out, when in reality there was no real sign that anything was going to go down? Is this a “fake it till you make it” type of reasoning, where they need it to look like an invasion so they may as well act as if it is an invasion?

For those who believe in the whole “evil globalists want to start WWIII in the Ukraine” conspiracy, you should know that pulling out American (and EU) assets would be counterproductive to that end. Thankfully, as it stands now there really isn’t much of a human USS Maine or Twin Towers that the Russians could be accused of targeting. Most commercial flights over Ukraine have been canned as well. And with good reason, as no one wants a repeat of the Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 disaster. All of this is good news for those who do not want to die in the fires of nuclear Armageddon. The False Flag catalyst has been locked away in the closet at least for now and we can all breathe a sigh of relief.

When Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin visited Kiev he came out strong in his wording then basically implied that the U.S. wouldn’t do anything directly for Kiev. U.S. President Joe Biden has flip flopped a bit but ultimately seems to be happy throwing military surplus at the problem to hopefully make it go away. Zelensky, possibly in a fit of stress induced madness has made it clear that Kiev never needed America anyways and is ready to deal with an invasion by itself with no need for foreign troops on its territory. Good luck with that.

The Ukrainian military has also now stated that they are not planning an invasion of the breakaway Donbass region. Which in our bizarre 21st century doublespeak means “yes we are going to invade” but more on that later.

About 45 days of pure tension and inaction lead up to February 16th.

Although the media push was strong, the actual action or rather inaction taken by Washington\Kiev was palpable up to February 16th. Like a car with a busted muffler idling on a cold morning, it sounded like something is moving or happening and yet nothing budged an even an inch.

But this inaction regarding the Ukrainian Crisis in 2022 is not the exclusive realm of the Anglo-Saxons. The Russians sent their men back home rather than invading, but all along Moscow has claimed that they were just moving troops for scheduled exercises (with the Belarussians) that were never a secret to anyone. Furthermore, the Russian side has a strong argument that it can move troops over its own territory as it sees fit and should not be seen as invasion prep. Again the question of one’s political leanings will determine if you think the Russians were telling the truth on this issue.

To the great joy of the Russian masses the Duma passed a resolution to recognize the DNR and LNR breakaway republics of the Donbass as independent. In reaction to this excitement and the opportunity to perhaps take the Donbass back without firing a single shot, Putin reaffirmed his commitment to the Minsk Agreements, international law and all sorts of other things that don’t excite voters, i.e. the President of Russia said “no” to the move, which looks like a fresh steaming hot plate’s worth of inaction.

I have said many times that the Western myth that Putin’s popularity is somehow fake is complete trash. He is extremely popular and under his leadership he took Russia from laughing stock to challenger to U.S. hegemony. He has done a lot, but there are two things the Russian public will never forgive him for #1) Blowing the opportunity to take back most of the Ukraine during the chaos of 2014 and #2) the insanely unpopular state pension reforms. Putin acknowledging that the vote at the Duma was a reflection of the will of the people, then still saying “no” was essentially doubling if not tripling down on unforgivable move #1.

Perhaps Putin fears that any attempt to bring the Donbass home in a loud way would doom Russia to have to fight the war it just avoided. After all, they have given Russian citizenship to everyone there anyways, they use the ruble and have essentially de facto become a part of Russia, so the waiting game may look like the brightest path to some behind the Kremlin’s walls. Also the fickle Russian elite may grow too tired of sanctions and bow down to Globalist pressure turning their back on the Tsar. The real threat to Russia is the elite betraying Putin to maintain their lifestyles.

And so the first 45 or so days of 2022 looked like an intense game of snooker with both players endlessly taking safety shots as to not let one red ball get far enough away from the pack to allow the other side to take the initiative. But sadly it looks like out of frustration and fear Kiev has stepped in to take the cue and carelessly slam the red balls about the table to get the show on the road. The inaction phase is sadly at an end.

I hate being right when I predict that thousands will die.

Judging by the results of the pseudo negotiations at the beginning of January I wrote that it seemed to me that the only compromise position acceptable to all who actually matter in the Ukrainian Crisis would be a proxy war. There are many people who fall into the trap of only believing in things that they like, I however do not and I just want to make it clear that I am not advocating for war, nor do I think proxy wars are a “cool” instrument of geopolitics, I just think that is what is going to happen based on the evidence.

So now the Ukrainians are attacking like never before. Officials in the Donbass have asked civilians to leave for Russia and a shell from the Ukrainian side has hit Russian territory. So far this has NOT been used as an excuse for the Russians to go in, but it certainly is dangerous. The Russians have also picked a rather poignant moment to do some hypersonic missile tests to show that they mean business and that Mutually Assured Destruction is not a thing of the past. All of this is happening and we haven’t even made it to the end of the first quarter of 2022.

So ultimately we can see that the Russians didn’t take the Mainstream Media’s bait so now the proxy war will begin as Kiev’s forces are going to try to take back the Donbass. Since they were armed by the Americans it is likely the Russians will in turn arm the locals with some high tech goodies of their own. And the fighting will be done seemingly between the locals with heavy support from the bigger powers. People are going to die in great numbers and probably the majority of them will be hapless Ukrainian conscripts who were blown to bits by Russian-made missiles they didn’t see coming. This will not be a heroic war of man, gun and willpower but a question of whose missiles are more accurate, but at least we are not going to all die in a nuclear war, so that’s nice.

The views of individual contributors do not necessarily represent those of the Strategic Culture Foundation.

See also

November 23, 2022
September 13, 2022

See also

November 23, 2022
September 13, 2022
The views of individual contributors do not necessarily represent those of the Strategic Culture Foundation.