First off, one cannot deny that the withdrawal is politically a significant humiliation for Russia. The question becomes, however, whether this sacrifice was necessary on military or political grounds, and what it may signify about the future course of the conflict.
Deal or no deal, General Winter is coming to town – ready to entertain his guest of honor Sun Tzu with so many new dishes at their dinner table.
On September 20, 2022, referenda on reunification with Russia were announced in the Russia-controlled regions of Ukraine as well as in Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics. They are widely expected to lead to these territories’ accession to the Russian Federation. Time will tell how this will change the nature of the conflict in Ukraine, but here is an attempt to show how the two sides are likely to see their borders very soon.
As Eurasian integration will become an even stronger vector, Russian diplomacy will be solidifying the new normal.